My conviction that we’ve bottomed has increased significantly based on the price action. The narrative driving the move is a WSJ report that Apr 2 tariffs will be narrowed. ES in pre-market cleared the key level of 5,740, which I can see the market reaching today. The next level to watch is 5,820.
China continues selling-off with no fundamental driver. As I tweeted last week:
Since my tweet, we have been seeing more selling in China. Even today’s news on BABA 0.00%↑breakthrough with AI chips failed to significantly move the stock.
China revenue exposure related names selling-off the most today. Eurozone related stocks rallying. Notably, non-profitable tech, which is a good indicator for risk-on flows, is up 1.67%. I expect more inflows during the US session later on.
A number of indicators of economic growth— including tax collections and power demand — have improved in recent weeks, boosting confidence following a selloff in stocks that started in September.
A “cyclical recovery” is underway, driven by a pickup in central government capital expenditure, a reduction in personal income taxes starting April and the central bank’s measures to improve liquidity, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a research note last week.
Indonesian stocks trimmed losses after the country’s new sovereign wealth fund said two former presidents will be advisors, easing market concerns over its leadership.
The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index closed 1.6% lower Monday, paring a loss of 4.7%, after the announcement. The rupiah lost about 0.3% against the dollar, putting the currency closer to its weakest level since 1998.
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