Daily thoughts
Trade recap
Markets update
What I’m reading
Portfolio review
Trades today
Daily thoughts
I was wrong. There’s no two ways about it, if you lose money you’re wrong. No matter what the reason was.
NQ futures broke resistance of 14,490, now testing the 19,550 level.
Now, honestly neither long nor short looks particularly attractive, but given my positions I think holding is the correct decision vs selling or going short.
I’m questioning my assumptions daily - I don’t want to be the fool who keeps averaging down.
Asia and Europe look like it’s business as usual, which hopefully bodes well for US later.
I now get why most fintwit and finstack (is this a thing? financial substack?) writers don’t post their positions and returns. It’s incredibly hard to consistently outperform the market with no drawdowns. Showing these losses can ward away readers looking for a get-rich-quick scheme. But my readers are smarter than that (😉). My take is that I will learn in public. I will show the ups and downs of managing my portfolio. This is not meant to be financial advice, it is a mere public journal of my investing journey.
Trade recap
What I posted yesterday:
IEFA 0.00%↑ short did very well, pre-market it’s still coming down so will hold it.
TLT 0.00%↑ going back up but I took a small profit and will now be using cash to fund my short put deliveries.
Good trades.
Markets update
Asia
China tech continues underperforming. Consumer names doing very well. Taking profit in China tech resumes. Might see some drawdown before it rallies again.
Europe
Was there even a selloff in the US yesterday?? Europe names shrugging off the negative sentiment, partially buoyed by Volkswagen results:
The company projects an operating margin of 5.5% to 6.5% in 2025, compared with 5.9% last year, and sees revenue increasing by as much as 5%.
US
Panic selling all around. Feels like an unwind of leveraged positions. TSLA 0.00%↑ down 15%, RDDT 0.00%↑ down 20%.
XLU 0.00%↑ and XLE 0.00%↑ are the only sectors up. Banks have been doing terribly, which is great news for my XLF 0.00%↑ short.
What I’m reading
US Stock Futures Signal Small Bounce After Selloff
Contracts for the S&P 500 were up 0.4% after the benchmark index fell the most this year on Monday. Those on the Nasdaq 100 rose after the gauge’s deepest slump since 2022. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was steady. Asian shares bounced off an intraday five-week low.
Bitcoin erased a decline of as much as 3.4% to climb 1.9%. Oil steadied after a decline while gold gained.
US-China Tariff Talks Stuck at Lower Levels, Stoking Frustration
While representatives from the two countries have had contact, officials in Beijing say the US hasn’t outlined detailed steps they expect from China on fentanyl in order to have the tariffs lifted, according to the people, who asked not to be identified. The second wave of duties imposed last week took working-level officials on both sides by surprise.
No Reprieve From Steel Tariffs in Sight Despite Lobbying Efforts
President Trump’s team has repeatedly said there would be no exceptions or exemptions from the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. In internal discussions and conversations with industry and labor groups, the administration appears to be sticking to that line, at least for now, say people familiar with conversations.
Last month, Trump issued a proclamation increasing the aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25%, effective March 12. He directed the Commerce secretary to end all exemptions to the steel and aluminum levies on that date, and prohibited new ones. He also ordered Commerce to widen the scope of steel and aluminum products covered by the tariffs.
VW profits slump on falling sales
Sharp falls in sales in VW’s home market of Europe and in China have prompted the company to drastically cut production capacity. It is also looking for partnerships with car software providers, after its previous strategy of doing everything in-house led it to fall behind in new technology.
VW on Tuesday reported operating profits of €19.1bn in 2024, against €22.5bn in 2023. For this year, it expects profit margins in the range of 5.5-6.5 per cent, compared with the 5.9 per cent it reported for 2024.
Arno Antlitz, VW’s chief financial officer, said that while the company had a “clear growth and investment strategy in the US” the outlook reflected “the global economic challenges”.
Portfolio review
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