$DXY Dollar holding on to the weak support at 96.5. I see some near-term upside.

$SPX Futures pulling back 50bps. Potential for some healthy correction, but I remain long.

$NDX Futures also pulling back 50bps. still the relative outperformer vs . This remains my largest position until my indicators tell me otherwise.

$KOSPI One of the index leaders the past 2 months approaching my sell signals. I give it a 70% chance of turning berarish into a sell signal within the next 10 sessions.

Taiwan still roaring ahead though, looking tempting.

$STOXX Interestingly, European names have lost their shine since Liberation day.

With all the talk about Iran and oil, O&G equipment names have performing badly. Reminder to self: never trade on headlines alone.

I estimate my current portfolio beta to be ~1.3. If market continues going up, which I anticipate it will, I will continue outperforming. Will turn bearish when my indicators show me it’s time.

Current portfolio:

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It took me a few months of hunkering down to grind out my performance to beat the market again:

What an ugly and inexcusable drawdown from Mar-May, but the worst is behind us. Am I still long? Yes. Why? See below:

Market update

Valuations are rich, but not uninvestible. SPX is 1sd above its 5Y historical fwd P/E range.

NDX is even more reasonable - just below its 1sd.

YTD EPS has been wobbly for both SPX (white) and NDX (blue), but recently shrugging off any liberation day woes.

All that is to say, stay invested.

Best ETF ideas

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Concentrix reported Q2 FY25 revenue slightly above its guidance, yet operational margins for the quarter were notably lighter than anticipated. While management projects an acceleration in revenue, margin, and cash flow growth for the second half of the year, we believe the underlying dynamics present significant challenges and warrant caution. The com…

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NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) reported Q4 FY25 results that fell short of the company's "NIKE standard," with revenues down 11% currency-neutral. However, management emphasized that these results reflect the largest financial impact from their "WinNow" actions, a strategic repositioning effort, and they anticipate improved business performance going forward.…

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• downgrade to bearish from range-bound

• Failed key support of 5,820. Futures looking bleak. Key PCE data to be released at 8.30am ET. That should determine the direction for the day. Markets expectations of PCE is very negative, hopefully negatives are already priced in.

• long-term: maintain bullish

Trade recap

• as expected the bearish engulfing candle yesterday would be negative, small reprieve today. Am still bullish on the position

• as expected the gap from Mar 24 has been filled. Could see a bounce up after April 2nd

• still a very high conviction trade from both fundamental and technical sides

• short continues helping the port during drawdowns, but could’ve been sized better

Portfolio overview

Here’s my full portfolio:

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• short-term: range-bound

• Expect it to hit my key level of 5,820 but remain supported by 5,740

• long-term: bullish

• Risk-reward skewing more upside than downside

Trade recap

• All trades still within limits

• still in the green but big bearish engulfing candle yesterday

• big drawdown yesterday, attempting to fill the gap from Mar 24

• markets taking profit a little, still bullish

• short helped during yesterday’s drawdown, still high conviction

Portfolio overview

Here’s my full portfolio:

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7d performance vs

Existing trades

Let’s start with where I was wrong. I was very wrong on copper futures. Initiated a short 2 days ago and took loss on the position.

I’m very happy with my other positions.

My largest position in , very much in the money and I see that continuing, at least until April 2nd.

As China sells off, India is looking higher and higher conviction with my position rallying.

Australia’s surprise tax cut was a positive tailwind to my position in initiated 2 days ago.

New trades

No new trades right now.

Portfolio

Here’s my full portfolio:

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Markets overview

$ES_F future grinding higher as we break above the key level I mentioned yesterday:

As of 5 minutes into market open we see risk-on sentiment still intact.

My technicals are telling me that the market is a little overextended and we could see a pullback to just below opening levels today. I hope not, but that’s what my short-term technicals are saying. Med to long term i’m still bullish.

My take on today is that we will go higher before bouncing off my key level of 5,8200, before ending the day slightly higher or unchanged.

Semiconductor names are selling-off. Seems like the comment on “a bubble in AI data center buildout” is bringing some downside to the market. Any mention of the world “bubble” by the tech companies themselves will undoubtedly draw eyes and selloff.

Energy leading by a strong margin with lagging as homebuilders have continued to underperform YTD.

Trade recap

As mentioned, I continue to stay long , have cut my long calls on , and cut my long put on .

As mentioned in my Substack chat, I’ve initiated the following positions:

Long . On track and up 86bps so far.

Short $MHG. This has been going against me and will reach my cut loss point soon.

My largest position, and most of my liquid net worth, remains long and has been going well so far today.

What I’m reading

Alibaba’s Tsai Warns of ‘Bubble’ in AI Data Center Buildout

“I start to see the beginning of some kind of bubble,” Tsai told delegates. Some of the envisioned projects commenced raising funds without having secured “uptake” agreements, he added. “I start to get worried when people are building data centers on spec. There are a number of people coming up, funds coming out, to raise billions or millions of capital.”

Australia Unveils Surprise Tax Cuts in Pre-Election Budget

Under the plan, the government will reduce the lowest rate of income tax to 15% in mid-2026 from 16% now, and then to 14% in mid-2027. While the bracket covers incomes from A$18,201 to A$45,000, the relief will flow through to all taxpayers.

Chalmers will also specifically target lower-income households by increasing the threshold at which a levy for the government-run health care system comes into force. This will provide “extra tax relief” for more than a million Australians, he said, with the total cost estimated at more than A$17 billion.

Portfolio review

Here’s my full portfolio:

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Markets overview

My conviction that we’ve bottomed has increased significantly based on the price action. The narrative driving the move is a WSJ report that Apr 2 tariffs will be narrowed. ES in pre-market cleared the key level of 5,740, which I can see the market reaching today. The next level to watch is 5,820.

China continues selling-off with no fundamental driver. As I tweeted last week:

Since my tweet, we have been seeing more selling in China. Even today’s news on breakthrough with AI chips failed to significantly move the stock.

China revenue exposure related names selling-off the most today. Eurozone related stocks rallying. Notably, non-profitable tech, which is a good indicator for risk-on flows, is up 1.67%. I expect more inflows during the US session later on.

Trade recap

Just to recap my weekend post yesterday:

QQQ 0.00%↑

• Staying long on QQQ 0.00%↑

• TP: 508.50 by Jun

• IRR: ~24%

• R/R: 1.7x

COPX 0.00%↑

• Cutting my Apr calls

• I was spot on with the directionality, but I shouldn’t have structured it in a long call option

FEZ 0.00%↑

• Close out my short position at market

• Missed out on bad execution - put my order to close my short on 28 Feb, but limit px was not hit. Would’ve called the bottom then.

What I’m reading

Indian Stock Rebound Gathers Steam as Nifty Erases Loss for 2025

A number of indicators of economic growth— including tax collections and power demand — have improved in recent weeks, boosting confidence following a selloff in stocks that started in September.

A “cyclical recovery” is underway, driven by a pickup in central government capital expenditure, a reduction in personal income taxes starting April and the central bank’s measures to improve liquidity, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a research note last week.

Indonesian Stocks Pare Loses as New Sovereign Fund Taps Jokowi

Indonesian stocks trimmed losses after the country’s new sovereign wealth fund said two former presidents will be advisors, easing market concerns over its leadership.

The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index closed 1.6% lower Monday, paring a loss of 4.7%, after the announcement. The rupiah lost about 0.3% against the dollar, putting the currency closer to its weakest level since 1998.

Portfolio review

Here’s my full portfolio:

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• Staying long on

• TP: 508.50 by Jun

• IRR: ~24%

• R/R: 1.7x

• Cutting my Apr calls

• I was spot on with the directionality, but I shouldn’t have structured it in a long call option

• Close out my short position at market

• Missed out on bad execution - put my order to close my short on 28 Feb, but limit px was not hit. Would’ve called the bottom then.

New ideas

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Powell’s comforting words lasted… a day.

It’s more than just US markets though. China sold-off really badly:

Europe also down on strong breadth:

Interestingly, the three obvious factors selling-off are China, war beneficiaries, and mining. China down on no news, individual stocks like selling off on pretty good earnings is very negative to me. Flows are dominated by sellers. Don’t fight the flows.

I sold my $HSTECH call options a week back, so well done to me.

Yesterday I made some intra-day trades which did well.

1. Sold some covered calls (Mar 20; 571 strike) on my position at 10.34am ET.

2. I then bought to close those calls 12.54pm.

That’s a cool $74 per contract profit. Didn’t do much else, but am thinking of diversifying my trades going forward. Too much of my P&L is dependent on or and I don’t like that.

Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Cap Worst Two-Day Drop Since October

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed down 2.3%, taking its two-day drop to 4.6%, the steepest since Oct. 9. Technology shares bore the brunt of the selling after powering the market for most of the year. Xiaomi Corp. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. lost more than 3% each. Onshore, the CSI 300 Index dropped 1.5%.

Bearish calls have also started to crop up, with BofA Securities warning this week of a “meaningful correction soon.” Morgan Stanley sees volatility ahead, noting that onshore investor sentiment has cooled. The caution suggests the market has priced in the positives that emerged from the National People’s Congress earlier this month, when authorities pledged to support economic expansion and AI development.

Meituan’s Revenue Jumps 20% in a Boost for Global Expansion

Meituan’s quarterly revenue climbed 20%, suggesting the Chinese meal delivery leader is successfully fending off new domestic competition while expanding abroad.

The Beijing-based company has been exploring overseas markets in part because of a slowdown at home. Last year, billionaire founder Wang Xing took over the company’s overseas businesses, which for now are centered on the fledgling Keeta app. That division has shown initial success in Hong Kong, squeezing out Deliveroo Plc.

• Asia flows are extremely bearish. Selling off without fundamental reason or newsflow.

• Europe struggling to beat its previous highs. As a reminder, I continue to be short

  

• US net selling

  • Pre-market shows staples slightly up, but net outflows. Seems like traders trimming positions before April 2nd.

As always, here’s my portfolio:

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Let’s look at correlations.

Positive correlation to SPX:

• WTI

Negative correlation to SPX:

• DXY

• 10Y yields

• Gold

• VIX

• Credit spreads

My short-term (3-month) view of theses asset classes:

• WTI up

• DXY up

• 10Y down

• Gold up

• VIX down

• Spreads down

Aside from gold and dollar, the indicators point to SPX bullish in the near-term. Only time will tell.

All eyes on FOMC later today. My bet is that as long as the Fed doesn’t spark fear (like suddenly cutting rates, or using cautious wording about the state of the economy), markets should show a slight relief rally.

Sold a bit of volatility yesterday - Dec’26 puts on at 410 strike.

Why? Just following options flow of course :) Futures are pretty flat so I wouldn’t call it a good trade just as yet, but given how high vols are it makes sense to me. Good R/R.

bull call spreads doing well, +24%

bull call spreads not doing as well, -15%

UK, EU in Talks to Accelerate Arms for Ukraine Before Ceasefire

“Of course it’s our intention to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position militarily and economically,” the foreign secretary told Bloomberg in an interview before Putin’s call with US President Donald Trump concluded. “We want peace to prevail but we get peace through strength and that means putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position to repel any prospects of the war beginning again.”

BofA Warns of Chinese Stock Correction ‘Soon’ in 2015 Repeat

The strategists, citing their investor trip to Shanghai, said long-only investors on the mainland are getting nervous as they worry about a lack of improvement in jobs, deflation and credit demand while the impact from geopolitical tensions has been overlooked. Some investors also see bubbles emerging in some tech areas, BofA said.

• Asia slightly down

  • Bofa’s warning on a possible correction in Chinese markets scaring investors

  • HSI nears key support of 25,300

• Europe opening red but crawling up slowly

  • Since this is a rotational market (investors not net selling, but rather rotating from US to other geographies), I think investors selling Asian and European stocks could be sitting on the sidelines for now waiting to deploy into the US on dips (like yesterday)

  • At the risk of sounding like a perma-bull, my lower support levels for SPX and QQQ are still respected.

    

• US futures up

• Dollar up slightly from YTD lows

• VIX remains above 20

Here’s my portfolio:

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I’ve recently started watching Netflix’s Drive to Surve. Yes I’m very late to the party, I’m only at Season 2. I love the parallels between racing and investing though.

First, the mentality required to succeed in both is very similar. Competitiveness and a hunger to win, continuous improvement and outworking the competition, taking winning and losing very personally. You see the best drivers and team principals tying their identities and self-worth to winning. That’s the same for the best performing investors - Druckenmiller, Cohen, Soros and others. They’re highly competitive, they hate losing, and they wouldn’t know what else to do if not investing/trading.

Second, they’re both about optimising for things you can control, yet the outcome can vary significantly due to unforeseen circumstances. In a race, you can have the best car, the best drivers, but if another car crashes into your driver, or if someone in your pit team fails to change a tire properly, you can easily go from P1 to P20. Just like with your portfolio - you can optimise with the best R/R trades with good IRRs, but names can go against you for a while and make it seem like your formula (no pun intended) isn’t working.

Last, winning once is not enough - you need to keep winning, every year. The record resets at the start of every season and you need to prove yourself again. Being the best requires putting in the work every day, every year. If you have a good team (portfolio), and consistently improve your car and shave seconds off your laps (optimise your portfolio), and keep racing your best (make good trades with no avoidable mistakes), you will have a good chance of being on top, and staying on top.

Made 4 trades yesterday, let’s recap:

1. Long bull call spread

   1. I got this idea from options flow. A big fish bought 27,500 contracts of May call spreads at 41/48 so I’m following suit.

   2. Fundamentally, I’m also bullish on China in the near-term given its plans to revitalise domestic consumption.

2. Long bull call spread

   1. Also from options flow. Got in May 282/295 call spreads.

   2. More of a hedging position. I’m still bullish on risk assets, so hard to see a situation where both risk assets and gold meaningfully appreciate. Primary goal is to hedge against FOMC on Thursday.

3. Closed my short on

   1. Closed it at a 3+% profit.

   2. My technical indicators show IWM turning up in the near-term. If the market rallies from here, it’ll be easy to see moving up meaningfully

4. Closed my short on

   1. Closed it at a 5+% profit

   2. Same reason as IWM, my technicals show XLF turning positive in the near-term. Strong support at 47.30 respected.

Overall good trades. Excited to see them deliver some value.

Trump Trade Chief Pushes for Order After Rocky Tariff Rollout

• This is what drove a lot of the gains towards mid-day yesterday.

• If the tariffs don’t come in April, the market will see a huge rally

One likely outcome is for USTR to create a formula for a single rate for each country based on that nation’s average tariff level and other measures the Trump team considers discriminatory, according to people familiar with the plans. The rates, though, could be adjusted based on Trump’s perception of whether a country has been cooperative or combative, one of the people said.

There’s also a chance some of the duties don’t take effect in early April, and would only come after a USTR or Commerce Department probe that could drag on for several months, the people said.

Japanese Trading House Shares Rise on Buffett’s Growing Stake

Shares of Mitsubishi Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu Corp. and Sumitomo Corp. climbed at least 4% as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo after filings to Japan’s finance ministry showed that Berkshire’s average holding across the stocks increased by just over one percentage point to about 9.3%.

Investors had been speculating over Warren Buffett’s next move since his annual letter to shareholders said that Berkshire is looking to increase ownership in Japan’s five largest trading houses “over time”.

Alphabet Said in Talks to Buy Cyber Firm Wiz for $33 Billion

• Could be the catalyst for re-rating

• Trading at 17.4x forward p/e is cheap

• The FTC mentioned on Bloomberg that they want to be more decisive with their legal action, either give the go-ahead or take it to court. The reduced uncertainty should be positive for M&A deals going forward. Probably not a coincidence that GOOGL announced the deal the day after, too.

The deal, which may be announced as soon as Tuesday, would be Alphabet’s largest acquisition to date, and could help Alphabet’s Google catch up with Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. in the competitive cloud-computing market. The internet search company’s cloud business has been profitable in recent quarters after years of losing money, though its sales growth has slowed.

• Asia markets looking good after yesterday’s US rally

  • Strong breadth in HK

    

• Europe futures edging up too (except Spain)

• US futures up except small-caps

• USD pausing its decline YTD

• If VIX closes below 20, it could signal that the bottom is over

• If you believe in seasonalities, Apr should do better than Mar

• Light crude continues rallying where I was forced to sell (to fund my delivery of puts sold in )

Here’s my full portfolio:

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Asia and Europe generally strong, despite US futures pointing to negative, buyed by China data, as per Bloomberg:

Retail sales clocked their best reading in the first two months since October, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, while industrial output exceeded the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Growth in fixed-asset invest…

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S&P 500 contracts rose 0.8% as a stopgap funding bill looked set to pass in Congress after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer opted not to block the measure. That’s helped lift the mood after the benchmark index extended its three-week rout beyond 10% on Thursday, the technical threshold for a correction…

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Daily thoughts

Found this interview with Kelly Granat from Lone Pine:

I think about why did I get into this field in the first place I think there's two sort of defining characteristics that I have that positioned me well to to to do this job. One is that I'm a wildly competitive human being. I was a junior tennis player my entire Junior career before going to college I played in college. I love to compete I love a scorecard, that's just who I am as a human. The second is that I'm an incredibly curious person who is very focused on growth, growth in terms of learning about new things, challenging myself. I play instruments, there's lots of things I'm interested in as a human. I feel so lucky to have found a career where I get to actually learn a lot and then put that knowledge to the test by measurement. We can make we can put capital behind those those learnings and those insights and see if we're right because there's a there's a weighing mechanism every day that gives us a scorecard. So for me the opportunity to do that at scale on a topic that is I think transformational not just for the markets but for society is just intoxicating.

We always want some measure of balance in our portfolio and we want several things that we're excited about that have idiosyncratic drivers that some of which may be tied to AI, many of which are not. There are many thematics in our portfolio that we're super excited about and our job is to be thoughtful about portfolio construction and make sure that all of our eggs are not in one basket or things that we we believe are discret bets then ultimately trade like, so that's part of our challenge.

Awesome seeing how someone at her peak of her career remains to passionate and driven. Her eyes really light up when talking about what she’s doing. She gave a fantastic interview with very little marketing.

Flows

• Asia

  • Leaning bearish during the session. Selling led by tech-related and consumer discretionary names.

• Europe

  • Quite a mixed bag. Idiosyncratic factors are the primary driver for stock movements. Can’t see any specific theme moving the markets.

  • Novo Nordisk investors buying the dip. I wouldn’t be too eager to buy it…

  • Halma good results, will do a summary soon.

• US

  • Futures down. Pre-market looks like a mixed bag.

  • up on new CEO appointment

  • down on 1Q25 results and analyst downgrades

From yesterday’s session, seeing some recovery in breadth - market is still broadly sold off.

Slight bounce for the dollar after the 6% depreciation YTD.

Technicals

Nasdaq futures continue to respect my channel, will remain long until that changes.

at key support level of 79.70

finding near term support too

Sentiment

Generally negative. No good news for the market to latch on, could explain the negative futures.

Hedge Funds Slash Asia Bets by Most in Four Years, Goldman Says

The Wall Street bank saw the largest decline in hedge fund positions in the region on Monday in four years, it said in the note, without specifying the type of assets.

About 75% of the fall was in developed markets, led by Japan, where hedge funds rushed to cover shorts and sell down long positions, it added. China dominated reduction in emerging markets in Asia, led by hedge funds trimming bullish wagers, it added.

Budweiser APAC to Cut Thousands of Jobs to Reduce Costs by 15%

The latest downsizing is part of the company’s plans to reduce operational costs by about 15% this year and comes after it cut 16% of some 25,000 employees last year, one of the people said. This year’s staff reduction would mean thousands more employees will depart the company after 4,000 were already cut last year, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

China will bear the brunt of the reductions as it accounts for more than 80% of the group’s manpower.

The company has been steadily reducing its headcount over the past few years, with the staff size shrinking about 20% by the end of 2023 from more than 30,000 in 2017.

Hong Kong Mulls Lowering Threshold to Buy Most Expensive Stocks

In background meetings between Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. and the brokerage community in recent weeks, bourse officials raised the option of streamlining the minimum trading unit, or board lot, of each stock, the people said, asking not to be named because the matter is private.

Currently the unit is set by each company and can range from 100 shares per trade to thousands. Other markets, including in mainland China, typically trade with a standardized unit of 100 shares and in some cases as low as a single share.

Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels

Take low-income consumers: At an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago in late February, Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon said “budget-pressured” customers are showing stressed behaviors: They are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month because their “money runs out before the month is gone.” McDonald’s said in its most recent earnings call that the fast-food industry has had a “sluggish start” to the year, in part because of weak demand from low-income consumers. Across the U.S. fast-food industry, sales to low-income guests were down by a double-digit percentage in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, according to McDonald’s.

US government closer to shutdown after Senate Democrats oppose bill

Republicans narrowly pushed stop-gap legislation through the House of Representatives on Tuesday night to extend funding at current levels to the end of September. 

But Democrats indicated on Wednesday they were unwilling to provide the support needed for the bill — known as a continuing resolution — to pass the Senate before the current funding expires on Friday night.

Tariffs rush some business jet deals, drive aviation cost fears

Makers of private or business jets, such as Canada's Bombardier (BBDb.TO), General Dynamics' (GD.N), Gulfstream Aerospace and Textron (TXT.N), have seen their order backlogs grow on demand from wealthy travelers and corporate clients.

Others are trying to close deals quickly, before further tariffs hit. One European buyer of a U.S. private jet has been trying to rush a transaction, said Katie DeLuca, a partner at Florida-based law firm Harper Meyer.

"That is what I've been seeing in that area, that rush transaction, get it exported, get it into Europe before a potential issue will arise," DeLuca told a Tuesday webinar held by the National Business Aviation Association.

Portfolio and trades

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Analysts expecting EPS to come in at $4.97 (+11% yoy) and topline at $5.61b (+11% yoy), basically no net margin increase.

Key themes to watch:

1. Digital Media Net New ARR

   1. Cons expecting $390m (-8.5% yoy) - this is the first time that ADBE did not guide for quarterly net new ARR so there could be a…

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Daily thoughts

As Gordon Ramsay says:

… and the market did

Interestingly, the fintwit consensus seems to say that this bounce is fake. I respectfully disagree, but only time will tell.

Let’s dive right in.

Fundamentals

CPI giving markets some relief amidst tariff pressure. I have no doubt markets would’ve tanked if CPI came in higher than expected. Tariff news at this point mostly priced in. Economy looks strong on all fronts now, I’m not seeing any immediate price hikes or lowered demand. Perhaps that will come in a few months time.

• CPI cooler than expected, 0.2% (vs est 0.3%) - very positive as the primary market fear is a recession due to tariff uncertainty.

  • Both the headline CPI and the core, excluding food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% compared with January, undershooting the median estimates of 0.3% for each. Shelter costs rose 0.3%, almost half of the monthly CPI gain – but a notably smaller rise than seen in recent years.

  • Year-on-year inflation came in at 2.8% for the headline, down from 3% in January, and 3.1% for the core – down from 3.3% and the slowest pace since April 2021, when the cost-of-living surge began.

  • Core inflation was propelled by items including medical care, used vehicles, recreation and apparel, while airline fares and new vehicles declined. The drop in airfares added to signs of a downturn in travel demand flagged by carriers in recent days.

  • Food inflation slowed on the month, to 0.2% from 0.4% in January, even though the price of eggs jumped by 10.4%. On a year-on-year basis, eggs surged by a staggering 58.8%.

  • Stock futures added to gains after the softer-than-expected inflation print, with S&P 500 contracts up 1.1% at 9:03 a.m. in New York. Treasury yields initially dropped, then retraced the move as investors highlighted the February figures pre-dated likely tariff hikes that may push up prices. Ian Lyngen at BMO said it was the “first time in the cycle in which such a benign inflation print has been completely discounted in favor of other risks.”

• 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports started today - already mostly priced in.

  President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force today, triggering an immediate reprisal from the EU as the global trade war enters a new and perilous phase. The metals tariffs apply worldwide, with effects extending to economic rivals as well as close US allies. Major Asian producers including South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia held off on retaliating. The UK said it would focus on “rapidly negotiating a wider economic agreement.” China, which wasn’t explicitly targeted in the latest trade salvo, didn’t immediately respond. The European Commission had the strongest reaction so far. It launched “swift and proportionate countermeasures” on US imports, reimposing balancing measures from 2018 and 2020 and adding a new list of industrial and agricultural goods. The EU’s countermeasures will apply to US goods exports worth up to €26 billion — matching the economic scope of the US tariffs, it said.

Technicals

NQ is right at my support level - bounced right off my channel.

Does this mean we’ve bottomed? I’m leaning towards yes. But if it closes decisively below, then we could see a huge downturn, perhaps another 10%.

ES though is a different story, still 5% below my channel. I think long short could be a good trade here.

Sentiment

Sentiment is quite jittery on tariffs. Aside from that, generally turning positive (India’s low inflation, Ukraine ceasefire agreement). Main thing dominating sentiment is the easing CPI which placated some sellers.

BOJ Is Said to See Good Reasons to Oppose Bond Market Action

Officials are determined not to step into the market unless extreme moves take place, for fear of creating thresholds for traders that would impact market functioning, according to the people. The market should decide rates and investors need to get used to a world without the central bank’s yield curve control after the program ended last year, they said.

Japan’s benchmark 10-year yields hit 1.575% Monday, the highest level since 2008, while on Wednesday morning the 20-year bond yield also rose to a similar benchmark. The same day, yields on 30-year debt climbed to the highest since 2006.

India’s Below-Target Inflation Boosts Case for Rate Cuts

The consumer price index rose 3.61% in February from a year earlier, the lowest in seven months and below the 3.98% predicted by economists in a Bloomberg survey. Inflation slowed to a seven-month low last month from 4.3% in January.

A slump in food prices helped to drive inflation below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, boosting chances of more rate cuts after new Governor Sanjay Malhotra pivoted to easing in February. The RBI lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in almost five years last month, with economists expecting further reductions in April.

Europe, Canada Hit Back at U.S. Steel Tariffs

Canada said it would put 25% tariffs on an additional $20.6 billion in U.S. imported goods including steel and aluminum products and other American goods such as computers and sports equipment. The Canadian tariffs are set to take effect Thursday.

The EU said it plans 50% tariffs on imports of American whiskey, motorcycles and motorboats starting April 1, hitting some of America’s best-known products including Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles. Other goods facing new or raised import duties at the beginning of the month include cranberries, garden umbrellas, tablecloths and handkerchiefs, the bloc said.

Russia pushes back Ukrainian troops after US plan to broker ceasefire

Russian state media shared footage on Wednesday that it said showed Russian soldiers in the centre of Sudzha, the main municipality where Ukraine had set up a command centre.

In February, Zelenskyy insisted the Russian territories held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region could be used as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations.

Flows

• Interestingly HK and India futures down, US, Europe, China, Japan all up. Moving from high vol to low vol maybe?

• Asia

  • Typical rotation of sell China buy India. Looks like it could be prolonged profit-taking.

• Europe

  • Very strong breadth with substantial dip-buying and some profit-taking.

• US

  • Defensives down: as well as driven by REITs because of yields up.

  • Similar to Europe, I see dip buying but with a much narrower breadth, and mostly for NDX names rather than SPX names.

Portfolio and trades

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Daily thoughts

I was wrong. There’s no two ways about it, if you lose money you’re wrong. No matter what the reason was.

NQ futures broke resistance of 14,490, now testing the 19,550 level.

Now, honestly neither long nor short looks particularly attractive, but given my positions I think holding is the correct decision vs selling or going short.

I’m questioning my assumptions daily - I don’t want to be the fool who keeps averaging down.

Asia and Europe look like it’s business as usual, which hopefully bodes well for US later.

I now get why most fintwit and finstack (is this a thing? financial substack?) writers don’t post their positions and returns. It’s incredibly hard to consistently outperform the market with no drawdowns. Showing these losses can ward away readers looking for a get-rich-quick scheme. But my readers are smarter than that (😉). My take is that I will learn in public. I will show the ups and downs of managing my portfolio. This is not meant to be financial advice, it is a mere public journal of my investing journey.

Trade recap

What I posted yesterday:

1. short did very well, pre-market it’s still coming down so will hold it.

2. going back up but I took a small profit and will now be using cash to fund my short put deliveries.

Good trades.

Markets update

• Asia

  • China tech continues underperforming. Consumer names doing very well. Taking profit in China tech resumes. Might see some drawdown before it rallies again.

• Europe

  • Was there even a selloff in the US yesterday?? Europe names shrugging off the negative sentiment, partially buoyed by Volkswagen results:

The company projects an operating margin of 5.5% to 6.5% in 2025, compared with 5.9% last year, and sees revenue increasing by as much as 5%.

• US

  • Panic selling all around. Feels like an unwind of leveraged positions. down 15%, down 20%.

  • and are the only sectors up. Banks have been doing terribly, which is great news for my short.

What I’m reading

US Stock Futures Signal Small Bounce After Selloff

Contracts for the S&P 500 were up 0.4% after the benchmark index fell the most this year on Monday. Those on the Nasdaq 100 rose after the gauge’s deepest slump since 2022. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was steady. Asian shares bounced off an intraday five-week low.

Bitcoin erased a decline of as much as 3.4% to climb 1.9%. Oil steadied after a decline while gold gained.

US-China Tariff Talks Stuck at Lower Levels, Stoking Frustration

While representatives from the two countries have had contact, officials in Beijing say the US hasn’t outlined detailed steps they expect from China on fentanyl in order to have the tariffs lifted, according to the people, who asked not to be identified. The second wave of duties imposed last week took working-level officials on both sides by surprise.

No Reprieve From Steel Tariffs in Sight Despite Lobbying Efforts

President Trump’s team has repeatedly said there would be no exceptions or exemptions from the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. In internal discussions and conversations with industry and labor groups, the administration appears to be sticking to that line, at least for now, say people familiar with conversations.

Last month, Trump issued a proclamation increasing the aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25%, effective March 12. He directed the Commerce secretary to end all exemptions to the steel and aluminum levies on that date, and prohibited new ones. He also ordered Commerce to widen the scope of steel and aluminum products covered by the tariffs.

VW profits slump on falling sales

Sharp falls in sales in VW’s home market of Europe and in China have prompted the company to drastically cut production capacity. It is also looking for partnerships with car software providers, after its previous strategy of doing everything in-house led it to fall behind in new technology.

VW on Tuesday reported operating profits of €19.1bn in 2024, against €22.5bn in 2023. For this year, it expects profit margins in the range of 5.5-6.5 per cent, compared with the 5.9 per cent it reported for 2024.

Arno Antlitz, VW’s chief financial officer, said that while the company had a “clear growth and investment strategy in the US” the outlook reflected “the global economic challenges”.

Portfolio review

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Daily thoughts

opened at closed below its 200dma. Let’s take a look at how the NDX has historically behaved 20 days after the same thing has happened.

24 Jan 2022: -2.93%

09 Mar 2020: -1.68%

31 May 2019: +7.65%

11 Oct 2018: +2.79%

06 Jan 2016: -6.22%

21 Aug 2015: +3.31%

16 Oct 2014: +11.90%

01 Nov 2012: +1.67%

16 Jun 2011: +7.12%

08 Jun 2010: -3.40%

07 Jan 2008: -9.40%

12 May 2006: -7.00%

07 May 2004: +3.47%

22 May 2000: +19.53%

Periods up/down 8/6

Average up/down +7.18%/-5.11%

Expected value of long 20 days later = (8/14) * (7.18%) + (6/14) * (-5.11%) = 1.92%

Honestly, that’s not a great risk-reward. My conviction has been decreasing in the past 2 sessions.

Futures are also down 47bps.

Historical drawdown of is resting at a key support level.

I don’t see many upcoming catalysts this week.

Trade recap

Here’s what I posted last week:"

I remain convicted on my short although it was +1% last Friday. Might add to it today.

What I’m reading

China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect

The Chinese government announced the tariffs last week, shortly after President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products for the second time since he took office in January. The Chinese tariffs will include a levy of 15 percent on U.S. products like chicken, wheat and corn, as well as 10 percent on products like soybeans, pork, beef and fruit.

Beijing said that goods that had already been shipped by Monday and imported by April 12 would not be subject to the new tariffs.

China’s Struggles With Supply Glut Threaten to Extend Deflation

Consumer inflation in the year to date has turned negative through January-February for the first time since 2021. While an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday helped push price growth below zero last month, the downswing was far sharper than predicted, suggesting inflation was feeble even when adjusted for seasonality.

For global banks like Citigroup Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc., the worry is that consumer prices could hover near contraction territory for the rest of the year if robust production overwhelms demand at home. As the People’s Bank of China prioritizes yuan stability over monetary easing in the near term, dragging the country out of deflation will likely hinge on the ability of policymakers to tackle overcapacity.

Deliveroo Exits Hong Kong Under Pressure From Rival Meituan App

The London-based delivery company will sell some assets to rival Foodpanda, owned by Delivery Hero SE, and close other assets, it said in a statement on Monday.

Deliveroo has faced stiff competition and price wars in Hong Kong from Foodpanda and KeeTa, a subsidiary of Chinese food delivery giant Meituan. Success in China has let Meituan expand aggressively, with growing operations across Asia and the Middle East. It typically enters markets with low prices and steep discounts, a strategy it can keep thanks to a soaring share price.

TSMC’s Sales Quicken in First Two Months in Upbeat Note for AI

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s revenue climbed 39% in the first two months, quickening from 2024 in a sign of resilient demand for the Nvidia Corp. chips that power AI development.

The world’s largest chipmaker reported combined revenue for the first two months of NT$553.3 billion ($16.8 billion). That compares with 34% growth during the full-year of 2024. Analysts on average are projecting growth of about 41% this quarter.

Mark Carney to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister

The incoming prime minister said his government would find new trading relationships with “reliable partners” and vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs on the US “until the Americans show us respect”, he said.

In the end, the race for party leadership was not close. Carney won with 131,674 votes, or 86 per cent, ahead of Trudeau’s former finance minister Chrystia Freeland with 11,134.

Carney said the party would pursue fiscal responsibility and social justice while striving to unite Canada. “My pledge to you and all Canadians is to build a stronger Canada for everyone,” he said.

The end of cheap palm oil? Output stalls as biodiesel demand surges

Even in Indonesia, replanting by smallholders, who generate 40% of its supply, remains sluggish.

As a result, global production growth has slowed to 1% annually over the past four years.

In the current decade, production growth is likely to average 1.3 million tons a year, said analyst Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World, less than half the average of 2.9 million in the decade to 2020.

Production could lose even more momentum from the impact of labour shortages, ageing plantations and the spread of Ganoderma fungus, which is hurting yields, Mielke said.

Markets update

• Asia

  • Seeing broad selling across Asia, looks like a combination of profit-taking from recent strength, as well as uncertainties from China’s trade tariffs on the US.

• Europe

  • Looking very overbought, many names are signalling sell on my indicators.

  • Overall market looks overstretched; narrative of Germany debt overplayed and will disappear in a few sessions.

  • Will be looking to short.

• US

  • Pretty much the opposite of Europe - many names looking oversold. Yes, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty are real but some of the selling has been overdone.

  • This differs from the big drawdown in 2022, where many names did not flag out as oversold on my indicators.

• Macro

  • DXY continues weakening but finding some weak support at 103.50.

  • 10Y yields look like a potential turning point here, I can see yields higher 3 months from now.

Pecking order: US (long), Asia (neutral), Europe (short)

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